Model of AV vote

The model works as follows, firstly the candidates who could possibly win under AV are found. The votes for other parties are then distributed based on assumptions given below. If this does not give a winner the parties that can no longer win (based on the redistributed votes) have their votes reallocated. This is repeated until a winner is found, or there is a stalemate (this can happen as not all parties and intentions are guessed initially, I look at the remaining seats individually below).

If you want to run your own experiments, and find far better guesses than mine about what people might do, the code is available and the data I used which was taken from Scraper Wiki.

The voting assumptions are as follows (in order of popular vote):

  • Conservative votes go to the Liberal Democrats
  • Labour votes are initially split equally between the Scottish Nationalists and the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Nationalist votes are then passed to the Liberal Democrats (for example outside Scotland where there are no SNP candidates)
  • Liberal Democrat votes are initially split 30% Conservative, 40% Labour and 30% SNP, with unused votes then passing to Labour (again for the SNP this always happens outside Scotland)
  • UKIP votes are passed to the Conservatives
  • BNP votes are split 70% to the Conservatives and 30% Labour (based on the parties attempts to appeal to the working class with minimal but significant success) with unused votes defaulting to the Conservatives
  • SNP votes are split between the Liberal Democrats and Labour, unused votes passing to Labour
  • Green votes are split 10% Conservative, 40% Labour and 50% Liberal Democrat
  • Plaid Cymru votes go to Labour, and if unused to the Liberal Democrats
  • English Democrat votes go to the Conservatives
  • Respect votes go to Labour
  • Christian Party votes go to the Conservatives
  • Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition votes go to Labour
  • Socialist Labour Party votes go to Labour

This model handles England and Scotland well (with the crude assumptions given). Wales is less elegant, as the model cannot deal with votes flowing to Plaid Cymru (without removing Scotland). I have not considered the MPs from Northern Ireland as I do not have sufficient knowledge to even guess how votes would flow.  With these assumptions 66 seats change hands. A further 44 need to be considered. The ones that change hands are listed below. With the exception of the Green Party in Brighton and the some Plaid Cymru seats (both of which might be argued to behave differently, due to local conditions) they are all Conservative. The support for FPTP, even though it does loose UKIP votes, now becomes more obvious.

Aberconwy Conservative Labour
Amber Valley Conservative Labour
Arfon Plaid Cymru Labour
Bedford Conservative Labour
Bosworth Conservative Liberal Democrat
Bournemouth W Conservative Liberal Democrat
Brentford Conservative Labour
Brighton Kemp Conservative Labour
Brighton Pav Green Labour
Bristol NW Conservative Liberal Democrat
Broxtowe Conservative Labour
Camborne & Redruth Conservative Liberal Democrat
Canterbury Conservative Liberal Democrat
Cardiff North Conservative Labour
Carlisle Conservative Labour
Carmarthen East Plaid Cymru Labour
Carmarthen West Conservative Labour
Chelmsford Conservative Liberal Democrat
City of Chester Conservative Labour
Colne Valley Conservative Liberal Democrat
Congleton Conservative Liberal Democrat
Corby Conservative Labour
Cornwall SE Conservative Liberal Democrat
Devon West Conservative Liberal Democrat
Dorset West Conservative Liberal Democrat
Dumfriesshire Conservative Labour
Ealing Cen & Acton Conservative Labour
Gloucester Conservative Labour
Halesowen Conservative Labour
Harrogate Conservative Liberal Democrat
Hastings & Rye Conservative Labour
Hendon Conservative Labour
Hereford &S Hereford Conservative Liberal Democrat
Hove Conservative Labour
Ipswich Conservative Labour
Kingswood Conservative Labour
Lancaster & Fleetwd Conservative Labour
Lincoln Conservative Labour
Montgomeryshire Conservative Liberal Democrat
Morecambe Conservative Labour
Newton Abbot Conservative Liberal Democrat
Northampton N Conservative Labour
Oxford West Conservative Liberal Democrat
Plymth Sutton&Devpt Conservative Labour
Preseli Conservative Labour
Pudsey Conservative Labour
Reading East Conservative Liberal Democrat
Sherwood Conservative Labour
Shrewsbury Conservative Liberal Democrat
St Albans Conservative Liberal Democrat
Stockton South Conservative Labour
Stroud Conservative Labour
Suffolk Coastal Conservative Liberal Democrat
Tewkesbury Conservative Liberal Democrat
Thurrock Conservative Labour
Truro & Falmouth Conservative Liberal Democrat
Vale of Glamorgn Conservative Labour
Warrington South Conservative Labour
Warwickshire N Conservative Labour
Watford Conservative Liberal Democrat
Waveney Conservative Labour
Weaver Vale Conservative Labour
Weston-s-Mare Conservative Liberal Democrat
Winchester Conservative Liberal Democrat
Wolverhampton SW Conservative Labour
York Outer Conservative Liberal Democrat

The special cases are argued below, but to sum them up:

  • Labour: Keep 14,  and take 4 more off the Conservatives
  • Conservatives keep 10
  • Lib Dems take 1 off the Conservatives
  • Plaid Cymru keep 1
  • Speaker keeps 1
  • Wyre Forrest goes Independant

That leaves 12 too tight to call, 8 of which were Conservative under first past the post, 1 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat and 1 SNP.

Aldershot (won by:Conservative)
English Independence Party 803
Christian Party 0
Conservative 21203
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 21106.0
Labour 0

I would guess that the English independence party are not likely to be so keen on the pro-european Lib Dems, so this would probably stay Tory.

Ashfield (won by:Labour)
Eddie Smith, Independent 396
Conservative 0
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 16047
British National Party 1946.7
Labour 17073.3
English Democrats 0

Not obvious to call, but Labour has 1000 advantage which is a lot to make up. Labour keep this one.

Bethnal Green (won by:Labour)
Ahmed Malik, Independent 71
Haji Choudhury, Independent 100
Respect-Unity Coalition 8532
United Voice 209
Conservative 8140.1
Patrick Brooks, Independent 277
Liberal Democrat 10638.0
British National Party 0
Labour 22547.9
Green 0
Pirate Party UK 213

Respect probably more inclined to Labour and Labour have a huge lead. Labour keep.

Bolsover (won by:Labour)
Labour 21994
UK Independence Party 1721
Liberal Democrat 6821
British National Party 2640
Conservative 10812

Labour’s massive advantage would be hard to beat.

Bradford East (won by:Liberal Democrat)
Conservative 0
Raja Hussain, Independent 375
Labour 13828.2
Peter Shields, Independent 237
British National Party 1297.8
National Front 222
Liberal Democrat 13637

Too tight to call.

Bromsgrove (won by:Conservative)
Mark France, Independent 336
Conservative 23904.1
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 10124
Ken Wheatley, Independent 307
British National Party 0
Labour 11826.9
Bromsgrove Independent Conservative 2182

The Independent conservative would presumably go to conservative, making an unassailable conservative lead.

Buckingham (won by:Speaker)
Christian Party 0
Monster Raving Loony Party 856
Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy, The 10331
Cut The Deficit Party 107
Debbie Martin, Independent 1270
British National Party 980.0
UK Independence Party 8410
Speaker 22860
Patrick Phillips, Independent 2394
Geoff Howard, Independent 435
Anthony Watts, Independent 332

Lots of opposition, but still quite safe for the speaker.

Burnley (won by:Liberal Democrat)
Andrew Hennessey, Independent 297
Conservative 0
Andrew Brown, Independent 1876
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 14932
British National Party 2622.9
Labour 14238.1

Hard to guess how those votes would go. Unclear.

Bury North (won by:Conservative)
Conservative 21641.0
Labour 21726.0
Liberal Democrat 0
British National Party 0
Bill Brison, Independent 181
Pirate Party UK 131
UK Independence Party 0

Too close to call, Not sure if the Pirate Party supporters would go for either of the two parties responsible for the digital economy bill.

Cambs South (won by:Conservative)
Conservative 28098.9
Labour 0
Green 0
Liberal Democrat 27116.1
Robin Page, Independent 1968
UK Independence Party 0

Stays conservative, the nearly 1000 lead would be hard to beat.

Cambs South East (won by:Conservative)
Christian Peoples Alliance 489
Conservative 27705.6
Labour 0
Green 0
Geoffrey Woollard, Independent 517
Liberal Democrat 26752.4
UK Independence Party 0

Again 1000 lead works for Tories, especially as they are more likely to get Christian votes.

Clwyd West (won by:Conservative)
Christian Party 0
Conservative 15833
Plaid Cymru 5864
Liberal Democrat 5801
Joe Blakesley, Independent 96
Labour 9414
UK Independence Party 0

Plaid Cymru and Liberal votes are likely enough to go Labour, so a Labour win.

Croydon Central (won by:Conservative)
Christian Party 0
Monster Raving Loony Party 192
Conservative 22694.6
Andrew Pelling, Independent 3239
Michael Castle, Independent 138
UK Independence Party 0
Green 290.5
British National Party 0
Labour 21941.9
Liberal Democrat 0

Too close to call

Dewsbury (won by:Conservative)
Khizar Iqbal, Independent 3813
Conservative 24013.4
Labour 25096.1
Green 424.5
British National Party 0
Liberal Democrat 0
English Democrats 0

Now significant Labour lead. Labout win.

Dundee East (won by:Scottish National Party)
Green 325.2
Conservative 0
Labour 16745.3
Liberal Democrat 0
Scottish Socialist Party 254
Scottish National Party 16635.5
UK Independence Party 0

Too close.

Durham NW (won by:Labour)
Watts Stelling, Independent 2472
Conservative 10062.4
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 10927
British National Party 0
Labour 19094.6

Labour might loose if all Conservative votes go Liberal, but certainly win if Watts Stelling’s supporters take the Conservatives into second. Hard to call, but the gap is so large, so Labour keep.

Dwyfor Meirionnydd (won by:Plaid Cymru)
Louise Hughes, Independent 1310
Conservative 6447
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 3538
Plaid Cymru 12814
Labour 4021

Plaid Cymru have it.

Edinburgh South West (won by:Labour)
Communist League 48
Conservative 11113.2
Labour 22586.8
Scottish National Party 0
Scottish Socialist Party 319
Green 0
Liberal Democrat 11395.0

Scottish Socialists and Communists would probably go Labour, putting them over the edge.

Enfield North (won by:Conservative)
Gonul Daniels, Independent 91
Christian Party 0
Workers Revolutionary Party 96
Conservative 21333.4
UK Independence Party 0
Green 244.5
British National Party 0
Labour 21458.1
Liberal Democrat 0
English Democrats 0

Too close.

Erewash (won by:Conservative)
Conservative 22997.2
Luke Wilkins, Independent 464
Green 267.0
British National Party 0
Labour 23058.8
Liberal Democrat 0
UK Independence Party 0

Too close.

Hexham (won by:Conservative)
Conservative 20000.0
Colin Moss, Independent 249
Labour 0
Liberal Democrat 21260.0
Steve Ford, Independent 1974
British National Party 0

Liberals take it with sufficient lead.

High Peak (won by:Conservative)
Tony Alves, Independent 74
Conservative 23977.1
Lance Dowson, Independent 161
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 0
Labour 23973.9
Green 461.0

Too close.

Hull North (won by:Labour)
Conservative 0
UK Independence Party 0
Green 0
British National Party 1010.1
Labour 13668.1
Liberal Democrat 12689.8
English Democrats 0

Labour nearly have it anyway. Labour keep.

Islwyn (won by:Labour)
Paul Taylor, Independent 901
Conservative 4854
Dave Rees, Independent 1495
Liberal Democrat 3597
Plaid Cymru 4518
British National Party 1320
Labour 17069
UK Independence Party 936

A crazy seat with lots of possibilities. Labour probably have the edge though. Labour keep.

Macclesfield (won by:Conservative)
Conservative 23587.0
Macclesfield Independent [The] 2590
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 11964.0
Labour 10500.0
Green 0

Conservative hold.

Maidstone (won by:Conservative)
Christian Party 0
Conservative 23556.5
Labour 0
Green 0
National Front 643
Liberal Democrat 22960.5
UK Independence Party 0

National Front probably to conservatives. Conservative hold.

Makerfield (won by:Labour)
Bob Brierley, Independent 3424
Conservative 8210
Labour 20700
John Mather, Independent 1126
British National Party 3229
Liberal Democrat 7082

Everything would have to come together. Labour hold.

Middlesbrough (won by:Labour)
Joan McTigue, Independent 1969
Conservative 7650.8
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 6662
British National Party 0
Labour 15937.2

Labour far enough ahead again. Labour hold.

Northampton S (won by:Conservative)
Tony Clarke, Independent 2242
Scrap Members Allowances 59
UK Independence Party 0
Green 0
Northampton – Save Our Public Services 325
Kevin Willsher, Independent 65
Labour 10058.2
Liberal Democrat 7760.5
Conservative 15953.3
English Democrats 0

Conservative hold. Far enough ahead.

Norwich North (won by:Conservative)
Christian Party 0
Bill Holden, Independent 143
Conservative 20262.3
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 0
British National Party 0
Labour 19549.2
Green 622.5

Conservative hold.

Oldham East (won by:Labour)
Christian Party 0
Conservative 0
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 14083
British National Party 1782.2
Labour 14949.8

Labour hold.

Rochdale (won by:Labour)
Islam Zinda Baad Platform 545
Conservative 0
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 15810
John Whitehead, Independent 313
Labour 16699
National Front 2236

Labour hold.

Rossendale (won by:Conservative)
Mike Sivieri, Independent 113
Impact Party 243
Conservative 22253.3
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 0
Labour 21176.7
National Front 1062
English Democrats 0

National Front does it for the Tories again, what a worrying image.

Rotherham (won by:Labour)
Peter Thirlwall, Independent 2366
Conservative 6279
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 5994
British National Party 3906
Labour 16741

Still Labour

Sheffield Cntrl (won by:Labour)
Conservative 0
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 17906.6
British National Party 632.1
Labour 18031.3
Green 0
Rod Rodgers, Independent 40

Too close

Somerset NE (won by:Conservative)
Green 335.0
Labour 24487.1
Liberal Democrat 0
UK Independence Party 0
Conservative 24626.9

Inclined to give it to the Conservatives they have a large enough advantage with the number of votes available. Conservatives Hold

Stoke-on-Trent C (won by:Labour)
City Independents 303
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 0
Paul Breeze, Independent 959
Labour 13355.6
Liberal Democrat 7039
British National Party 0
Alby Walker, Independent 295
Conservative 8584.4
UK Independence Party 0
Gary Elsby, Independent 399

Labour far enough ahead.

Swindon South (won by:Conservative)
Christian Party 0
Karsten Evans, Independent 160
Conservative 22240.4
Labour 22204.1
Green 309.5
Liberal Democrat 0
UK Independence Party 0

Too close.

Torfaen (won by:Labour)
Fred Wildgust, Independent 1419
Conservative 7584.8
UK Independence Party 862
Green 0
Plaid Cymru 2005
British National Party 1657
Labour 17022.2
Richard Turner-Thomas, Independent 607
Liberal Democrat 6483.0

Labour far enough ahead. Labour hold.

Warwick (won by:Conservative)
Jim Cullinane, Independent 197
Conservative 23638.4
Labour 23924.1
Green 346.5
Liberal Democrat 0
UK Independence Party 0

Labour take this, small gap, but not many votes available.

Wirral West (won by:Conservative)
Common Sense Party 321
Labour 18931.0
Liberal Democrat 0
David Kirwan, Independent 506
Conservative 18715.0
UK Independence Party 0

Too close.

Worcester (won by:Conservative)
Peter Nielsen, Independent 129
Conservative 23142.3
Labour 23703.2
Liberal Democrat 0
British National Party 0
Green 367.5
Pirate Party UK 173
UK Independence Party 0
Andrew Christian-Brookes, Independent 99

Labour win over.

Wyre Forest (won by:Conservative)
Conservative 21725.0
Independent Community and Health Concern 16150
UK Independence Party 0
Liberal Democrat 4228.0
British National Party 0
Labour 7298.0

I will show my bias, I like independents, and pass it to Independant Community and Health Concern.

Ynys Mon (won by:Labour)
Christian Party 0
Peter Rogers, Independent 2225
Conservative 8521.6
Labour 13304.4
Liberal Democrat 0
Plaid Cymru 9029
UK Independence Party 0

Labour probably have enough to hold.